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Economic Updates

Stay up-to-date on economic conditions and outlook with our analysis and commentary.

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Have YOU Received Your Stimulus Check?

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By Paul F Ciccarelli CFP®, CHFC®, CLU®

On June 3, the U.S. Treasury announced that it had delivered 159 million EIPs (Economic Impact Payments). Of the Economic Impact Payments, 120 million were sent by direct deposit, 35 million by check, and 4 million payments were made in the form of a pre-paid debit card.

There has been some uncertainty regarding the specifics of the EIP. We have narrowed down some of the details regarding the Economic Impact Payments. 

How is your Payment determined? 

Payment amounts vary based on income, filing status, and family size. If you filed a 2019 tax return, the IRS used information from it about you, your spouse, your income, filing status, and qualifying children to calculate. If you haven’t filed your 2019 return or it has not been processed yet, the IRS used the information from your 2018 return. 

The Payment is not included in your gross income. Therefore, you will not include the Payment in your taxable income on your Federal income tax return or pay income tax on your Payment.

You are eligible to receive a stimulus check if:

· You are a single US resident and have an AGI under $99,000.

· You file as the head of a household (considered unmarried with at least one dependent) and earn less than $146,500.

· You file jointly without children and earn under $198,000.

· You are the parent of a child aged 16 or younger.

Those payment brackets are as follows: 

  • Eligible individuals will receive up to $1,200.
  • Eligible married couples will receive up to $2,400.
  • Eligible individuals will receive up to $500 for each qualifying child.

Payments are automatic for individuals who receive Social Security retirement, Disability (SSDI), Survivor Benefits, non-taxable veteran’s benefits. If you receive veteran’s disability compensation, a pension, or survivor benefits from the Department of Veterans Affairs, or your income level does not require you to file a tax return, then you need to submit information to the IRS to receive an Economic Impact Payment. The form can be found accessed at www.freefilefillableforms.com.  

How You Will Receive Payment May Vary:

If you received a direct deposit of your refund based on your 2019 tax return (or 2018 tax return if you haven’t filed your 2019 tax return), the IRS has sent your Payment to the bank account provided on the most recent tax return. If you filed your 2019 or 2018 tax return but did not receive your refund by direct deposit, your Payment will be mailed to the address the IRS has on file.

If you receive an Economic Impact Payment debit card, it will arrive in a plain envelope from “Money Network Cardholder Services.” Please go to EIPcard.com for more information.

What to Do If You Have Not Received Your Payment: 

If you received IRS Notice 1444 in the mail notifying you that payment has been made and you have not received your payment, you can request a payment trace by the IRS. If you file taxes and have not received your payment you should confirm that the information the IRS has for you is correct. 

You can check on your Economic Impact Payment status HERE.

New details and information regarding the Economic Stimulus Package are being released every day. It may be beneficial to schedule some time to discuss any ongoing financial concerns with your advisor. Our team will continue to monitor the situation, and keep you informed. 




Investment advisory services offered through Ciccarelli Advisory Services, Inc., a registered investment adviser independent of FSC Securities Corporation.  Securities and additional investment advisory services offered through FSC Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment adviser. 9601 Tamiami Trail North, Naples, FL. 239-262-6577.

To RMD or Not To RMD….

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By Josh Espinosa, CFP®, CIMA®, and Jasen Gilbert, CFP®

Spring has always been a special time of the year for us. For years we have had a standing tradition of getting together to enjoy offshore fishing and catching any of the great Bluewater pelagic species including Mahi, Tuna, and Wahoo. Once in a while, we are even lucky enough to catch and release a billfish.  

What we have learned over the years is that a successful trip is a result of having a good plan, teamwork, and the right tools. How does this relate to financial and retirement planning?  

Currently, account holders of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA’s) and defined contributions plans who have reached the age of 72 (previously 70 1/2), are required to take an annual required minimum distribution (RMD), withdrawing a percentage of their account value. In response to the recent pandemic and economic fallout, the CARES Act federal stimulus package waived the RMD requirement for 2020. This provision aims to give retirees’ account balances more time to recover before RMDs resume in 2021.    

When it comes to deciding whether or not it makes sense to waive your RMD for this year, there are some factors to consider. For example:

  1. If you don’t need the income, then you might consider stopping your distributions for 2020.
  2. Individuals who had already taken their RMD’s in 2020 might be able to roll it back into their account or another eligible retirement account. If you were diagnosed with COVID-19 there are other options as well.
  3. This could be a great time to consider establishing a Roth IRA with assets that would otherwise have been taken as RMD’s. As the account is considered after-tax, there is also no taxable consequence for withdrawals taken after the first 5 years.
  4. Under the new SECURE Act, Roth IRA assets must be distributed to the beneficiaries within 10 years. This applies to certain IRAs as well.
  5. For certain select cases, a Roth conversion may be an option for you.

Again, the rules can be complex, so please speak with your financial advisor or tax professional regarding this and other RMD planning opportunities.

When it comes to your financial and retirement plan, we think that there is no substitute for having a good plan and team in place to navigate these financial waters and hopefully take advantage of some opportunities along the way.  

If you would like to learn more about the CARES Act and other planning opportunities, please join us on May 19, 21, and 27 as we partner with the Blue Zones of Southwest Florida for a series of virtual financial workshops. Please see the following link for the invite and event details



Due to current conditions, we feel it is best to continue to meet with you either by phone or video conference only. If you would like to meet via video please let us know when we call to schedule your next meeting.

Investment advisory services offered through Ciccarelli Advisory Services, Inc., a registered investment adviser independent of FSC Securities Corporation.  Securities and additional investment advisory services offered through FSC Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment adviser. 9601 Tamiami Trail North, Naples, FL. 239-262-6577.

Paycheck Protection Program Has Depleted Funds

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Kim Ciccarelli Kantor CFP®, CAP®

It was announced on Thursday, April 16th, 2020, that the Small Business Administration (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), enacted by the CARES Act, had depleted the $349 billion allocated to the program and will not accept new loan applications at this time. Applications for the program were first released on April 3 and within 13 days funds were completely exhausted.

The $10 billion that was set aside for Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL), a loan advance that can provide up to $10,000 in emergency economic relief to businesses currently experiencing economic difficulties, has also run out of available funds. The SBA stated that it is currently unable to accept any new applications for the PPP or EIDL programs based on available funding and that it is also unable to enroll new PPP lenders.

The Paycheck Protection Program was created through the CARES Act, the $2.2 trillion relief bill enacted by President Donald Trump to provide economic relief to businesses, families, and individuals financially affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. PPP loans issued by the SBA are authorized to provide small businesses with loans to pay eight weeks of salary, benefits, and other eligible costs. The loans will be forgiven if all employees are kept on the payroll till June 30th and the money is used for payroll, rent, mortgage interest, or utilities.

There is a possibility that lawmakers will approve an expansion to the program in the coming week, which could include $300 billion in additional funds for the program, however, details of this expansion are still being ironed out.* Small business owners who are waiting on this expansion may want to verify they are exploring their full range of financial options since it is unclear at this time if and when additional loans will be made available.

If you have any questions about this announcement or how it may impact your future financial plans, please feel free to reach out to your CAS advisor.

*As of Thursday, April 23, 2020, the Federal Government approved another round of $321 billion in funding.


Paycheck Protection Program. (3AD). Retrieved April 23, 2020, from Small Business Administration Website

Peasley, M. A. (n.d.). Paycheck Protection Program Funds Depleted and Economic Injury Disaster Loan Applications No Longer Accepted. Retrieved April 23, 2020, from Roetzel and Andress Law Website

Investment advisory services offered through Ciccarelli Advisory Services, Inc., a registered investment adviser independent of FSC Securities Corporation.  Securities and additional investment advisory services offered through FSC Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment adviser. 9601 Tamiami Trail North, Naples, FL. 239-262-6577.

Ciccarelli Advisory Services – Staying in Touch

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We understand that uncertain times can be worrisome. As you are aware, we have seen significant changes to the financial markets, the economy, and generally, our everyday lives in a very short period of time.

As a valued member of our CAS family, we want you to know that we are here for you.

We are reaching out to let you know that we are here for you in the event you need to speak with us.  Please feel free to contact us via phone or email at ciccarelli@cas-naplesfl.com if you would like to schedule a 15-minute call with us to discuss your portfolio.

We have suspended taking on new referrals, new client relationships, marketing, and all non-essential client work for the time being so that we can focus on client portfolios.

During this time, we are not only considering your financial security and asset protection, but we are also looking at opportunities.  The bottom line is we will get through this; it is just a matter of time.  Here are some considerations that are top of mind.

1)      Primary Concerns:

  • Cash Flow – Your cash flow needs are an important factor. We want to avoid selling securities at a lower value, if possible. If you have enough cash to support your cash flow needs for the next 6-12 months, let’s stay the course. If you do not, we need to connect to begin strategically raising cash.
  • Market Risk and Volatility – Volatility in the markets tend to play on our emotions.  You and I react when our account values drop as they have been over the last several weeks. This is human. The coronavirus is likely to get worse before it gets better. With that said, research and history show us that the prudent thing to do in times like these is to remain invested and focus on your long term objectives.

2)      Opportunities:

  • For individuals that have been overweight in cash, this may be the time we have been waiting for.  By observing current valuations, we feel there will be great companies and industries that are priced for opportunities to buy for long term growth, income, and appreciation. We suggest that excess cash be invested for long term objectives.  A dollar-cost averaging strategy has been proven to work well during these times.  Please contact us if you would like more information on this strategy.
  • Tax Loss Harvesting – Due to the recent pullback we are now seeing an opportunity to realize losses on taxable accounts to offset future gains.
    • For some individuals, we can take a loss by selling what may be considered a riskier asset and purchasing into an equity position that has less inherent risk…potentially reducing the overall risk level of your portfolio.
    • These losses may be useful to offset gains from the sale of positions that are significantly overweighted in your portfolio. The gains from the sale of the highly appreciated stock can be offset by the realized losses and then the proceeds can be re-invested in a more diversified way. This strategy may serve to reduce single stock risk in your portfolio.
  • If you are comfortable with your cash cushion, perhaps consider deferring or minimizing withdrawals from your portfolios.

We will be communicating on a regular basis via email, newsletters, and by telephone. If you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to give us a call or email. We are here to serve you.

Stay safe and healthy!

Important Update From Ciccarelli Advisory Services

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As you are aware, we’ve seen significant changes to the stock market, the economy, and generally our everyday lives, in a very short period. Whether in Rochester, Naples, or other cities; restaurants, bars, beaches, and social venues have closed to limit the impact of the Coronavirus. Workplaces are reconfiguring staff to allow for remote access and reduced exposure. 

At present we are moving toward minimum staffing mandates as the situation surrounding the virus escalates. It is our intention, and in keeping with being responsible citizens, to plan for a skeleton crew in both our offices daily. This will begin the week of March 23rd. We think it is important to take this step to both conform to the increasing concerns, and importantly, to manage your needs.

Our company is an essential business as defined by the government, and we will continue to take care of client needs. With the speed at which things are changing, we have put a contingency plan in place to minimize staffing within the offices. Going forward, if we are required to do so, we are prepared to work off-site. We are able to receive your phone calls, place trades, and address any distribution or servicing need that you may have. In effect, we will be able to do everything we do every day in our offices, at our assigned offsite workplace.

We believe that America will rebound from this.  Given the recent response of eliminating opportunities for gathering, coupled with testing, we believe a recovery similar to what is being seen in China and South Korea is possible. 

During this time we are spending 100% of our effort servicing the needs of our existing clients. As you know, servicing our clients has always been a priority, and at times like this, our number one concern is taking care of you.  While we typically welcome referrals, we’d prefer that you defer referring new clients to us at this time. This allows us to stay in touch with you, and follow what’s going on with the markets. We expect to have the capacity to work with new relationships in another month or two. We will let you know when we resume welcoming new referrals, as this is the lifeline of our business. Please know that our number one concern at this time is you, and all our clients.

We believe it has always been to our advantage to plan in advance, and we wanted to take this opportunity to share our plan with you. 

You are in our thoughts.  For now, please be safe and we will be in touch.


Kim Ciccarelli Kantor, CFP® CAP® | President

Important Message From Ciccarelli Advisory Services

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As a valued member of our CAS family, we want you to know that we’ve been thinking about you.  Your health and safety are one of our top priorities and at the heart of the decisions, we are making and will continue to make. 

We believe it is critical that we all work together to reduce the transmission of COVID-19.  At the same time, we know it is important for us to stay connected during this time of tumultuous markets and global uncertainty.

Our firm’s operations are critical and can’t – and shouldn’t – simply stop. We have looked at our options and at this time feel it is best to ramp up our efforts to protect you from exposure to this virus and any other illness, regardless of its source.  Therefore, we’ve made the painful decision to meet with you, for the foreseeable future, by phone or video conference only.  There is nothing as satisfying as a face-to-face meeting; however, these uncertain times require that we put our own desires aside and commit to containing risk wherever possible.

For your convenience, we have a dropbox outside of our Naples office for clients wishing to drop off checks or paperwork.  It is located near the entrance that faces 96th street and is secured at all times.  For both Rochester and Naples clients, we also have an area in our lobby for dropping off paperwork or checks.  This area is sanitized for your protection after each use.

As part of our continuity plan, we intend to keep our office locations open and fully-staffed for your planning and service needs.  Our intent is to keep our staff and planners healthy as well so that our operations may continue uninterrupted.  We are just a phone call or email away for any questions or concerns you may have. 

We thank you for your continued trust in us and wish you the very best of health as we move together through these times.

Ciccarelli Advisory Services – Keeping You Informed

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We wanted to let you know that we are closely following the financial markets across the globe and the continued volatility that is impacting investor confidence. Global markets have been bracing for uncertainty as the spread of COVID-19 leads to reduced economic activity. In addition, an oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia has exacerbated concerns of a global recession, prompting large selloffs across riskier asset classes.

At this moment, it’s impossible to forecast whether a recession will occur as a result of COVID-19 and oil oversupply concerns, and their impact on the global economy. Outbreaks are eventually contained, and recessions are part of market cycles. The most important thing to keep in mind is not to overreact to the headline news which can often create unnecessary panic. Markets have proven resilient over time and it’s important to maintain discipline and focus on your long-term goals.

We are here to support you and navigate these times of uncertainty together. Knowledge is power, and we’re committed to equipping you with the tools and information you need to weather this storm. We are continuing to watch market developments and are here to assist you with evaluating and understanding these economic changes.

As always, if you have any questions do not hesitate to call. We suggest scheduling time for a 15-minute conversation or a more comprehensive review if you have not yet connected recently with us or someone on our team. 

2018 Year-end Report

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There is a relatively old saying that has gone through various reiterations but is typically along the lines of “in life there are mountains, and there are valleys. You have to make it through one to get to the other.” It refers to the ups and downs that one can experience throughout their lifetime, but it can also be applied to other areas. By the end of the 2017 fiscal year, the market had surpassed numerous record highs that many believed would only continue into 2018. While some of those predictions did hold true, 2018 demonstrated that you may have to deal with both the mountains and valleys when investing.

Right out the gate of 2018, the S&P 500 began on a high note, reaching gains of +7.4% in just 18 trading sessions. Despite the initial surge, the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq 100 all fell in March after major selloff in the technology sector pulled down stock measures across the board. Early concerns over then reports of imposed tariffs on Chinese trade may have also effected markets as investors weighed possible regulatory ramifications.

When the closing bells finally rang and signaled the end of the day for the 1st quarter, the Index had a decent rise of 1.4% for the day but was down 2.64% for the month. Some of the worst performing areas were: Financials, Materials, and Technology. Energy and Utilities performed quite well.

Many in the investing community voiced concerns over long term economic effects that could result from a possible oncoming trade dispute with China coupled with expected Federal interest rate hikes. Ratios of bull to bear investors remained nearly neck and neck, and many debated whether the longstanding bull market was showing early signs of coming to a close.

Despite these concerns and continued volatility, the 2nd and 3rd quarter ended in gains. The S&P reported total returns of 2.65% and 7.71% for the 1st quarter and 2nd quarter, and overall the index edged up 1.67% for the first 6 months of 2018. By the end of the 3rd quarter, the market had extremely good returns with a 7% quarterly return rate and the S&P 500 experiencing its best performance in nearly five years.

As mentioned earlier, with every mountain, there is typically a valley not too far away. This was the case for the final leg of 2018. Trade war fears, federal interest rate hikes, along with worries about contracting growth outside the U.S. may have played a role in the slowed growth activity and market downturn. In October, the S&P 500 lost $1.91 trillion. By the end of the year, the S&P 500 had a decline of 13.52% for the quarter, and 6.2% for 2018. Overall, the U.S. stocks posted the worst quarterly fall since the 2008 financial crisis.

One of the sectors that was hit the hardest was big technology, with many stocks underperforming and accounts of investors fleeing after earnings reports. By mid-October the S&P 500 had dipped 0.6 % to 2,750.79, with the tech sector falling more than 1.5 %.

Several factors may have played into this including bond yields and a fourth Federal interest rate increase. However, the job market has expanded substantially in the last year, with a growth of 3.7 % and a historically low unemployment rate.

The increase is on point with the Federal Reserve’s projections to insure that the inflation rate stay near 2% mark. Many voiced concerns that the hike coupled with an escalation in a Chinese trade war may actually cause an economic downslide. The U.S. has implemented tariffs on $250 billion worth in Chinese goods. There is a full list of products which have had implemented tariffs, but worries that these tariffs may require many tech giants to raise prices or face losses in their profit margins may have had a strong impact on investor’s optimism in the market.    

Going forward into 2019, many are unsure of where the market is headed, and if the same issues and volatility will continue in the new fiscal year. Factors such as changing the political climate, many nations high debt levels, overseas trade, and interest rates may be on the top of many people’s minds when trying to gauge where the market is headed.

At the moment, the Federal Reserve has indicated that two more rate increases are to be expected. Some experts believe this may be good in the long run but may cause some turbulence at the start. Only time can truly tell.

The trade dispute with China still continues. Stimulus from tax cuts have been predicted by some to fade in the next year. Many hope that China’s need for a trade deal to combat an economic downturn may prompt a quicker resolution.

One issue that may have had a strong effect on December’s economic turmoil is many investors’ concerns over the ongoing political uncertainty in Washington. At the end of December, the federal government partially shut down after both sides of the aisle were unable to compromise over funding for a U.S. Border Wall. As this shutdown continues, many are uncertain of the long-term economic fallout.

Investment anxiety can arise from uncertainty, which is why it can be beneficial to meet with your advisor to discuss long term goals and risk tolerance so that together we can develop a financial roadmap that best suits you. A review of your asset allocation, time horizon, and risk tolerance is key. 

While life may be filled with mountains and valleys, our team is here to guide you throughout the journey – today, tomorrow, and for generations to come.

Investment advisory services offered through Ciccarelli Advisory Services, Inc., a registered investment adviser independent of FSC Securities Corporation.  Securities and additional investment advisory services offered through FSC Securities Corporation, member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment adviser. 9601 Tamiami Trail North, Naples, FL. 239-262-6577.


Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Data:


Trade Tariffs Data


Nasdaq Composite Data



Federal Interest Rate Data:


Remaining Calm throughout the Storm: Understanding Market Volatility

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By Jasen Gilbert, CFP®


As I was returning home from a conference in Pennsylvania, I rode at the back of a bus on my way to the Philadelphia airport. On that 40-minute commute, I experienced one of the bumpiest roads of my life. With every pothole and every crack, I lurched in my seat and was thrown around like a rag doll. As I got off the bus, I was green in the face.


Bumps in the road can often be jarring and downright sickening – not only as it relates to my perilous journey on I-76, but also when we experience the ups and downs of a volatile market. As an investor, you are taken for a ride on an emotional roller coaster when the markets fluctuate – from hopeful and elated to alarmed and desolate.


The impulse to run away from the market during a correction period is totally natural and inherently human. Our fight-or-flight response – triggered by the amygdala region of the brain – causes our adrenaline to surge and sparks feelings of anxiety and distress. While this function is essential to our survival, the amygdala can also cause us undue stress when the source of our concern is largely beyond our control.


However, if we take a step back and put the immediate state of play into the broader, long-term context, we can overcome the “alarm bells” of our amygdala. Simply put, the market has always gone down and has always gone back up. Those who stay the course are often rewarded. In addition, volatile market conditions can present significant opportunities for savvy investors.




Why the Volatility?

In a deeply interconnected global economy, a wide variety of factors – both at home and abroad – are contributing to the current volatility. While a comprehensive list of factors is beyond the scope of this article, we will highlight the major current events that are driving the market fluctuations.


If you’ve been keeping up on your business news lately, you will likely be familiar with these topics. These stories have dominated the headlines.


Domestically, the adoption of tariffs has raised concerns for industries that depend on imported goods and for companies that sell their products overseas. In a similar vein, the recent revisions to NAFTA and discussions of other agreements have caused some uncertainty in the realm of international free trade.


Additionally, the Federal Reserve has continued to incrementally raise the federal funds rates (now set at 2.25%); while these rates are historically low compared to their pre-2008 levels, there has been a substantial increase since 2017 (when the rate was 0.5%). These three factors are driving much of the anxiety in the domestic sector.


In international news, the Chinese stock market has been careening downward since January. After reaching an all-time high of 3,559 on January 24, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index has fallen to 2,602 as of October 31 (a 26.8% decrease). The ripple effect of China’s economic woes can be felt worldwide.


Across the pond, the negotiations for Brexit still hang in the balance. By many indications, the divorce between the European Union and the UK could be a messy one.


In addition, Italy’s 2019 draft budget has been rejected by the EU. As seen in Greece, the massive debt incurred by Italy – coupled with the economic strain of the EU’s austerity measures – could be dire for Italy, and these factors have prompted murmurs of an Italian exit from the international alliance.


Lastly, leadership changes in Mexico (a new populist president, Enrique Peña Nieto) and in Brazil (a new far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, who has advocated pro-market policies) could influence the investor outlook in the Latin American sector, as well as U.S. interests that are enmeshed in the region.


Without question, the global economy has never been more complicated and intertwined – and the future is sure to be filled with even more complexity. That being said, the level of volatility we are seeing today is not a new phenomenon.



Zoom Out to Bring the Full Picture into View

Despite the alarming nature of these recent financial news headlines, the reality is likely far less scary than we are inclined to believe. Let’s calm down our amygdala by putting the current situation into proper historical context!


On the graph below, you can see the annual performance data of the S&P 500 for each year since 1980. The gray bar represents the annual percentage of return; the red boxes represent intra-year declines – the difference between the highest and lowest points of the index during each particular year – as a measure of market volatility.



In 2017, the S&P 500 experienced a fairly steady market trend, where the strong upward trajectory was not offset by any significant corrections. In the first 10 months of 2018, we have seen a noticeable increase in volatility. However, the year-to-date market performance is still well within the historical norm.


With an intra-year decline of 10% in 2018, the circumstances facing the S&P 500 are far from dire and are quite comparable to the course taken by the markets in 2016. Also note that even in years where the intra-year declines were substantially larger (between 11-19%), the average calendar year return was 7.6%. For this reason, staying the course when the markets get choppy is often a wise decision.



The Greatest Opportunity

As investing legend Warren Buffett has famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Without a doubt, a correction period presents the potential to tap into significant financial planning opportunities:


  • Buying opportunities for accumulators: If you are a career-focused professional who is actively saving money for retirement, corrections are essentially a seasonal sale on stocks. In many cases, it may behoove you to put your cash to work when the market takes a dip.


  • Tax loss harvesting: You may want to consider selling some positions that have lost market value. By “harvesting” this loss, you can leverage the decrease in value to offset taxes on both capital gains and income. Tax loss harvesting can be an effective way to remove struggling stocks from your portfolio while also reducing your tax burden.


  • Rebalancing: In some cases, it may be beneficial to revisit your asset allocation and identify areas for enhancement. The recent losses and volatility are not evenly distributed among asset classes; some sectors are performing well or holding steady, whereas others are lagging. Rebalancing allows you to reinvest the profits from an outperforming stock or industry into a different asset class that could have greater growth potential, while also maintaining a diversified portfolio to hedge against risk.


If the bumps in the road we have been experiencing in the market are causing your stomach to churn, you are not alone. You are human! We are hard-wired to react emotionally when the market slides. The often-sensationalized media coverage of current events and financial news also fuels the fear response and apprehension about staying in the market.


However, when we look at the big picture of market performance over the long haul, we find that – in many cases – the most prudent course of action is to (1) stay the course and (2) capitalize on any untapped opportunities that may arise as a result of the correction.


Fortunately, your CAS advisor is always available to help you look past the fear and anxiety, bring the big picture into focus, and explore the possibilities for maximizing your upside as we weather the turbulent tides of volatility.


How Tariffs Impact Your Bottom Line

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By Judy Alexander-Wasley, CFP®, MBA


If you’ve been keeping up on economic and market news, you are likely familiar with the Trump administration’s recent assessment of tariffs against major U.S. trade partners.

The new tariffs – taxes on imported goods – have stirred quite a frenzy among investors and economists across the globe and have dominated the financial news headlines throughout the past few months:


Dow drops 250 points on Trump’s tariffs.

Canada tariffs on U.S. goods from ketchup to lawn mowers begin.

Harley-Davidson, stung by tariffs, shifts some production overseas.


The main targets of the U.S. tariffs are (1) China, the world’s second-largest economy and a rapidly developing global power; and (2) three long-standing allies of the United States: Canada, Mexico and the European Union. In both cases, the Trump administration has levied ad valorem tariffs against specific imported products from these countries.


In the case of China, a 25% tariff has been assessed on steel and an additional $34 billion in Chinese goods. The tax, which was announced in April, is being levied on 1,300 products, ranging from medical supplies and machinery to dishwashers and snow plows.


In response, China has announced a plan to retaliate by taxing $34 billion in American agricultural goods, including beef, chicken, pork and soybeans; although these tariffs have not yet been implemented. Additionally, the Trump administration has suggested that any retaliatory measures taken by the Chinese will be met with tariffs on an additional $200 billion of imported goods.


The EU, Canada and Mexico were also hit with a 25% tariff on steel exports and a 10% tariff on aluminum exports. The EU has now imposed tariffs on $3 billion of U.S. goods (e.g. whiskey, peanut butter, Harley-Davidson motorcycles), prompting Trump to threaten a 20% tariff on all European-produced cars sold in America (to be levied on approximately $300 billion in automobiles).


Canada and Mexico have also responded in-kind to the steel and aluminum tariffs. Mexico has imposed a series of taxes on $3 billion in U.S. goods (e.g. pork, apples, potatoes, bourbon), and Canada has assessed tariffs on $12.6 billion of goods (e.g. ketchup, lawn mowers, whiskey).


In light of these recent developments and the looming possibility of further retaliatory actions, let’s examine how tariffs could impact your family and the global economy at large.



Tariffs vs. Reality


Tariffs are often imposed as a well-meaning attempt to protect domestic production of goods and services, as well as to reduce both a nation’s trade deficit with other nations and their overall budget deficit.


However, in a modern global economy, the touted benefits of tariffs rarely materialize. Let’s evaluate three claims that are often made in support of the recent tariffs assessed by the United States federal government.



Claim: Tariffs protect American jobs.


Reality Mostly false. Tariffs might be effective in protecting domestic jobs in specific industries. For example, those who are employed in steel and aluminum production were ecstatic with the news about tariffs on imported metals. Domestic employment in those two industries should experience short-term preservation and even modest growth.


That being said, increased commodity prices will likely have a negative impact on related U.S. businesses that rely on imports of those goods – leading to net job loss.


The automotive and aerospace industries, for example, are dependent on imported steel to produce vehicles at a competitive price. Steel tariffs will increase their production costs, leading corporations to increase the prices of consumer goods and to take other measures that sustain profitability (scaling back expansion plans, cutting labor costs through downsizing or outsourcing, etc.).


Another prime example of tariff-induced job loss can be observed in the print media industry. The Trump administration levied tariffs against Canadian paper in January and February, leading to a 30% overall increase in the price of newsprint.


The Tampa Bay Times (Florida’s largest independent newspaper) anticipated that the tariffs will result in an additional $3 million in annual costs. Consequentially, the Times cut about 50 jobs to make ends meet.


Other print media companies have expressed similar concerns about the impact of the paper tariffs on their ability to operate in their current capacity. Smaller local newspapers could be forced to cease production altogether, while larger newsrooms will need to cut staff and/or reduce the size and frequency of their print editions.



Claim: The United States’ massive trade deficits with other countries are damaging to our country and need to be corrected.


RealityMostly false. Trade deficits can indeed have damaging consequences on national economies, but deficits are not inherently good or bad for an economic powerhouse like the United States.


In theory, running a trade deficit does carry significant risks. Large trade deficits can indicate that a country’s demand for imported goods significantly outpaces demand for their domestic products.


As a result of lackluster demand for domestic goods and services, both employment and currency value within that country would be negatively impacted. These conditions can set the stage for rampant inflation and rising interest rates, which can ultimately put a serious damper on economic growth.


However, the U.S. is largely immune to these negative consequences of trade deficits. Due to the fact that the U.S. dollar serves as the dominant world reserve currency – and given the sheer scope of our economic output – demand for the U.S. dollar remains relatively strong and sustained, regardless of trade deficits or other weak economic indicators.


It is also worth mentioning that trade deficits can lead to positive economic consequences. Countries with whom the U.S. carries a large trade deficit (China, for instance) will often recirculate their nation’s surpluses back into the United States in the form of foreign direct investment.


The best example is the influx of Chinese real estate investors, who have acquired substantial commercial and residential holdings in major U.S. cities since the dawn of permanent normalized trade relations in 2000.



Claim: Tariffs increase revenue for the federal government and reduce our bloated budget deficit.


RealityPartially true. Tariffs do increase revenue to the federal government in the short term, as they collect duties on imported goods.


That being said, tariffs almost always translate into higher prices for consumers because businesses transfer their increased production costs onto you. As tariffs increase the cost of living for American families, people will have less disposable income on average.


By decreasing the purchasing power of wages, more and more Americans might need to utilize social welfare programs to make ends meet – especially SNAP (food stamps), Medicaid and subsidized housing. The increased demand for public assistance will require additional funding for these programs.


If the added revenue derived from tariffs is spent on social welfare programs, then the fiscal benefits of tariffs are neutralized.


It is also important to note that any revenue obtained from collecting duties won’t come close to compensating for the lost revenue from the most recent tax cut, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will add at least $1 trillion to our 2018 deficit.



Three Additional Consequences


The retaliatory exchange of tariffs between two or more sovereign nations is known as a “trade war” and typically leads to negative consequences for all parties involved. In most instances, no one wins a trade war; it’s a matter of which country loses more.



Tariffs often have a negative short-term impact on U.S. stocks and erode investor confidence.


Whenever new tariffs are levied either by or against the U.S., the New York Stock Exchange and other global markets enter a short-lived freefall.


For example, the Dow fell 495 points on April 2 after China announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.; the markets surged back within two days. Similarly, the Dow dropped by 250 points on May 31 when Trump announced tariffs on the EU, Canada and Mexico; stock prices recuperated within 48 trading hours.


Although the dramatic headlines about daily market performance and volatility can be worrisome, the long-term impact of tariffs on investors is even more concerning. Tariffs can result in waning investor confidence about the profitability and growth potential of U.S. industries that are affected by the tariffs (both directly and indirectly).


The uncertainty of looming retaliatory tariffs also contributes to investors’ apprehension, which could further suppress economic growth.



American exporters will struggle to compete in foreign markets.


For American-based companies that sell their goods on the global marketplace, tariffs threaten their ability to sell goods at a competitive price. When a good or service is overpriced relative to the alternatives, demand for the product will drop substantially.


The ensuing loss of sales revenue reduces profitability and could even undermine a company’s ability to continue overseas operations in its current capacity.


Perhaps the most high-profile example of this phenomenon is Harley-Davidson. When the EU announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in April, Harley-Davidson motorcycles were slapped with a 31% tax. The cost of every one of their motorcycles sold in the EU increased by $2,200 on average.


In response to the huge increase in production expenses, Harley-Davidson announced in June that they will be laying off workers at one of their Wisconsin plants and outsourcing motorcycle production for its Europe market.


Likewise, agricultural industry experts and farmers alike have expressed deep concerns about how impending retaliatory tariffs could affect food exports. The state of Iowa, which is the leading producer of pork in the U.S., could be especially hard hit.


Mexico imposed a 20% tariff on American pork in June, which caused pork prices to plummet and will cost Iowa’s producers an estimated $560 million in lost revenue during 2018. In addition, China has floated the idea of a tariff on U.S. soybeans (another staple crop of the Iowa state economy). Iowa’s soybean producers could lose up to $624 million.



The United States’ reputation as a dependable and essential international trade partner will likely deteriorate.


Widespread tariffs have the potential to destabilize the global free trade alliances that have underpinned the U.S. economy for decades. The countries that have been impacted by recent tariffs have expressed a diminished confidence in the U.S. as an integral trade partner.


The full ramifications of this international shift in attitude are yet to be seen. However, some new developments suggest that our current trade partners are more likely to take actions that advance their rational economic self-interest rather than affirming their loyalty to the U.S.


Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau has indicated that he will not engage in NAFTA renegotiation talks until the most recent slew of tariffs has been nullified. Also, amidst economic uncertainty and other outside factors on the Korean peninsula, the South Korean government is now pursuing a trade deal with Russia – a nation that has long sought to chip away at the iron-clad alliance between the U.S. and South Korea.


The current U.S. leadership also seems disillusioned with the established system of global trade, as evidenced by the Trump administration’s introduction of the United States Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Act last week. The bill would grant U.S. presidents far more latitude in levying tariffs on 163 World Trade Organization member countries, a move that would effectively terminate U.S. cooperation with the WTO.


If the economic tensions between the United States and our global trading partners continue to heat up, more foreign nations may begin to seek out alternative trade deals with the European Union, China and other emerging economic powers.


The question is: Will the U.S. will be invited to the table for future negotiations if we upend the chessboard of international free trade?



The Bottom Line: Protecting American jobs and preventing foreign nations from taking advantage of us is an appealing message that has resonated with millions of Americans.

Despite the strong rhetoric of the Trump administration, however, the haphazard implementation of tariffs is an ineffective and inappropriate course of action if our goal is to maintain and expand America’s standing as a global economic superpower.


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